Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 0.084521 0.094217 0.104195 0.115205 0.126986 0.139188 0.152756
2025-01-12 0.067876 0.082277 0.097914 0.116030 0.136315 0.158211 0.183514
2025-01-19 0.055511 0.072755 0.092413 0.116173 0.143807 0.174645 0.211365
2025-01-26 0.050771 0.070933 0.094829 0.124670 0.160375 0.201190 0.250833
2025-02-02 0.043917 0.065498 0.092093 0.126374 0.168501 0.217740 0.278789
2025-02-09 0.038872 0.061593 0.090605 0.129061 0.177416 0.235003 0.307543
2025-02-16 0.033550 0.056619 0.087162 0.128783 0.182297 0.247171 0.330116
2025-02-23 0.031724 0.056170 0.089423 0.135663 0.196070 0.270224 0.366018
2025-03-02 0.029687 0.055142 0.090701 0.141121 0.207989 0.291041 0.399362
2025-03-09 0.025489 0.050423 0.086473 0.138859 0.209645 0.298833 0.416510
2025-03-16 0.021494 0.045526 0.081565 0.135281 0.209250 0.303792 0.429965
2025-03-23 0.020062 0.044571 0.082258 0.139394 0.219063 0.321841 0.460019
2025-03-30 0.018315 0.043030 0.082148 0.142604 0.228082 0.339491 0.490483
2025-04-06 0.016444 0.041076 0.081294 0.144720 0.235697 0.355527 0.519266
2025-04-13 0.014461 0.038659 0.079523 0.145362 0.241229 0.368874 0.544755
2025-04-20 0.014534 0.040125 0.084025 0.155454 0.260171 0.400278 0.594050
2025-04-27 0.013094 0.038451 0.083263 0.157519 0.267749 0.416547 0.623737
2025-05-04 0.011991 0.037301 0.083261 0.160675 0.276874 0.434956 0.656373
2025-05-11 0.010456 0.035004 0.081120 0.160366 0.280914 0.446444 0.679921
2025-05-18 0.010298 0.035710 0.084220 0.168357 0.297129 0.474702 0.725959
2025-05-25 0.009911 0.035837 0.086267 0.174681 0.310955 0.499786 0.767940
2025-06-01 0.008397 0.033065 0.082877 0.172063 0.311412 0.506306 0.784983
2025-06-08 0.006899 0.030008 0.078696 0.167918 0.309397 0.509259 0.797145